A RE-ANALYSIS OF THE 21ST CENTURY NASA GISS GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DATA USING MILLIKAN’S METHOD FOR THE DETERMINATION OF TWO UNIVERSAL CONSTANTS OF NATURE

REANALYSISNASAGISS1880TO2013GATDATA

Millikan received the Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923, for his determination of two universal constants of nature, the elementary electrical charge q on a single electron from his oil drop experiments, and the Planck constant h from his photoelectric measurements. However, it has not been generally appreciated that Millikan did not use statistical methods to determine either q or h, not even linear regression analysis to determine the slope of his (x, y) graph for lithium and sodium, to determine Planck constant.

 

Millikan’s methods are now applied to the global average temperature data (from the NASA GISS observations) for the 21st century to show that, unlike the application of statistical methods, the data for just the years 2001-2013 also reveals unmistakable evidence of a general warming of the globe, at nearly the same fixed rate as was observed during the entire period from 1880-2013. Hence, attention of all climate scientists must be called to this important finding, within the context of the current debate on the reasons for the perceived stalling of global warming trends. Misinterpretation of the temperature data will obviously lead to misleading analysis via sophisticated computer climate models and the analysis presented here merits the attention of climate scientists on both, or all, sides of this debate.

 

BODHISATTVA AND VENDICARDECARIAN0 DISCUSS THE ENGLAND ET AL PAPER ON THE PACIFIC TRADE WINDS STALLING GLOBAL WARMING

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BODHISATTVA AND VENDICARDECARIAN0 DISCUSS THE ENGLAND ET AL PAPER ON THE PACIFIC TRADE WINDS STALLING GLOBAL WARMING

See here my analysis of the NASA GISS global average temperature data for 2008-2013 during an interesting online discussion at Bloomberg News website. In the comments section, Vendicar (for short) posts the NASA GISS data and asks Bodhisattva, “Where is the cooling?”

I had looked at the NASA GISS data before, but this post intrigued me and have I re-analyzed here the 2008-2013 data, drawing upon the generalized idea of Einstein’s photoelectric work function, as applied to climate science data. This was discussed in earlier posts here and the present discussion puts it within the context of a question posed during a popular online discussion of this topic. In fact, I must add here, that I am very impressed by the level of discussion the England et al article has prompted. While we bemoan the general “dumbing” down of America, there are actually intelligent discussions of global warming, which is obviously a matter of great societal concern, regardless of which side one is in this debate.  

GENERALIZATION OF EINSTEIN’S IDEA OF THE PHOTOELECTRIC WORK FUNCTION: EXAMPLE FROM SCANDINAVIAN CLIMATE DATA

GENERALIZATION OF EINSTEIN WORK FUNCTION (11FEB14)

ON THE GENERALIZATION OF EINSTEIN’S IDEA OF THE PHOTOELECTRIC WORK FUNCTION: EXAMPLE FROM SCANDINAVIAN CLIMATE DATA

A linear law, with a nonzero intercept c, of the type y = hx + c = h(x – x0), is often observed when we analyze our (x, y) observations on a number of complex systems. The climate system data is considered here for illustrative purposes. The nonzero c in such a law is like the nonzero work function W, conceived by Einstein, in 1905, to explain the photoelectric effect. Einstein’s law was thus able to explain the cut-off frequency observed experimentally by Lenard.  Likewise, there is a cut-off x0 = -c/h. The photoelectric law implies a movement of the empirical observations along a family of parallel lines. A similar movement along parallels is observed if we analyze our (x, y) observations carefully. The method of deducing the existence of such parallels is also discussed and is traced to the method used by Millikan to determine the two universal constants: the absolute magnitude on the charge q on a single electron and the Planck constant h.

BAFFLED BY (STALLING OF) GLOBAL WARMING: NO NEED TO BE

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BAFFLED BY (STALLING OF) GLOBAL WARMING

A recent media article, by Pilita Clark, that appeared in the Financial Times (February 9. 2014), see link given, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37930724-917a-11e3-adde-00144feab7de.html
is based on some recent findings of the IPCC, which attributes the “stalling” to strong Pacific trade winds.

Please note that my analysis of the global average temperature data, from 1880-2013 (which I have called attention to in earlier posts here and on my Facebook page, Global Warming for the Layman), leaves no room for this kind of “baffling” or “riddles” in climate science.

The global average temperature T, plotted versus time t in years, follows the simple law T = A + Bt. The data falls on a family of parallels with the same fixed slope B and varying values of the nonzero intercept A. I have shown that there are at least five parallels – not two but five  parallels – all having the same fixed slope B, which is a measure of the rate of increase of the global average temperature (warming rate, or heating rate). However, the nonzero intercept A is also important and determines the absolute magnitude of the global average temperature T. The more negative the nonzero intercept A, the lower will be the temperature, although the temperatures are still increasing.

Climate science, as I realized and have shared here, ignores the absolute magnitude of the global average temperature T and instead is focused on what is called the temperature anomalies, the difference between T and some baseline, now taken as the global average temperature for the 20th century by NASA GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies) and also by NCDC (National Climate Data Center). The focus on temperature anomaly (TA), instead of T, has been a barrier to the recognition of the fact that the earth is actually cooler than it would have been if the temperature had continued to rise along the parallels (dashed lines with positive slope) corresponding to earlier periods of the 20th century, see Figure 2 of the attached file.

A critical examination of the global average temperature data, while paying attention to the absolute values of the temperature T. Please note that the term “absolute” is NOT to be confused with absolute temperatures based on the Kelvin scale used in scientific work; it is simply the temperatures measured in degrees Celsius or Fahrenheit, without introducing the anomaly calculation. The temperature anomaly (TA) is given by the equation, 

TA = T – TB

where TB is the global average temperature for the base-period, which is now taken as the average value for the 20th century, i.e., the average over 1901-2000. More detailed discussion of the 21st century data can also be found in the references to this article being uploaded here. (The references are NOT published yet but can be obtained by contacting me.)

EVOLUTION OF NONLINEARITY IN THE RUSSIAN PRECIPITATION-TEMPERATURE DATA

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In the attached I have discussed how nonlinearity arises as we analyze the Russian data for precipitation reported by several weather stations (184 total). This also been posted in response to a question on nonlinearity posed by Prof. Derek Abbott, which is reproduced below.

 

Question

The paradox of infinity: where does the nonlinearity come from?

The principle of linear superposition holds for the integers, eg. 3 + 4 = 7. However, when we take the integers out to infinity we now obtain nonlinear behaviour. Infinity plus any amount is still infinity, so linearity has broken down.

TOWARDS A NEW PHYSICS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE SCIENCE

ON A SIMPLE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION RELATION (05feb14)

TOWARDS A NEW PHYSICS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE SCIENCE

The term evaporation is used to describe the transformation of liquid water into its gaseous form, at ordinary temperatures, well below the boiling point. We expect evaporation rates to increase with increasing temperature. Does that mean precipitation will also follow same trend? That is, will precipitation, as observed locally, increase with increasing local average temperatures?

Precipitation is the opposite of evaporation – water coming back to the earth as rain or snow. For this, a study of the observational data reveals both types of trends, precipitation P increasing with increasing temperature T, and precipitation decreasing with increasing temperatures and also a maximum point on the graph of precipitation versus the average temperatures; all deduced empirically. The existence of a maximum point on the P-T graph implies that there is an optimum temperature for precipitation.

In this first article, I have reported the trends observed in UK, USA, Germany, Australia, Malaysia, Ecuador and Singapore. The P-T graph for all these countries reveals a negative slope. Since this article was completed, the opposite trend with the positive slope has been confirmed (prompting the note included in the appendix), quite unmistakably, with the data for China. And, both the Russia and Mongolia data show positive and negative slopes with a maximum point on the graph of temperature-precipitation graph.

So, why is there is a maximum point? Perhaps, this is analogous to the appearance of a maximum point of the blackbody radiation curve. As is well known, the attempts to explain this maximum point, theoretically, led to the birth of quantum physics.  

Following this train of thought would lead us to a new physics for global warming, or the science of climate change. In his new theory, Planck essentially describes a method of determining the average value U = UN/N of some property of interest where N is the number of microscopic entities and UN is the total value of the property of interest. In Planck’s original theory, the microscopic entities are called resonators and U is the average energy of the resonators and UN their total energy with N being a very very large integer.

A generalization of the Planck-Einstein ideas, well beyond physics, to many other branches is possible, if we recognize that Planck is trying to determine the average value of some property for a very complex system [59, 60]. This has been discussed by the present author in several articles which have been made available in non-peered publications [37, 38].

EVIDENCE FOR A UNIVERSAL LAW DESCRIBING THE TEMPERATURE-TIME RELATION FOR THE EARTH’S CLIMATE STSTEM

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EVIDENCE FOR A UNIVERSAL LAW DESCRIBING TEMPERATURE-TIME RELATION FOR THE EARTH’S CLIMATE SYSTEM

This is an updated and revised file that was posted earlier. (Sorry, I wish I could figure out how to delete old files and upload a revised file, making this post unnecessary.) 

When light, a stream of photons with energy E = hf, shines on the surface of a metal, it produces electrons with a maximum kinetic energy K, given by K = E – W = hf – W where h is the Planck constant, f is the frequency of light and W is the work function of the metal upon which light is shining. W represents the energy that must be given up to bring the electron out of the metal. This is the photoelectric law conceived by Einstein in 1905. 

Likewise, when the sun rises and shines upon the earth, the solar energy flux (also called the solar irradiance, energy per unit time per unit surface area, measured in Watts per square meter) causes the temperature T to start rising. According to the kinetic theory of gases, the temperature T of an ideal gas is directly proportional to the average kinetic energy of the atoms or molecules of the gas. Thus, the observed annual global average temperature can be taken as an accurate measure of the energy that has been transferred to the earth from the sun. 

I found something interesting about the temperature-time relationship over the last few weeks, by studying both the climate (and weather) data at various levels, at the local level of single city, at the national level of a  single country, and also at the global level. The law can be shown to be a simple linear law of the type T = A + Bt where the nonzero intercept A, in my opinion, is exactly similar to the work function conceived by Einstein to explain photoelectricity.

I have been testing the universal applicability of this law since it became obvious to me, recently, during the bitterly cold spell that we have been experiencing in the USA, which got me interested in studying the weather and/or climate data at various levels. The temperature-time data for both Detroit, MI and London, UK, for the full month of December 2013 and (the to-date) January 2014 can be shown to follow this simple law. The global average temperature data, from 1880-2013, can also be shown to obey the same law. As with the photoelectricity experiment, where the K-f graph yields a family of parallels (for different metals, each with its own work function W), the T-t graph is also a family of parallels, with a fixed slope B and a nonzero intercept A, which can be compared to Einstein’s work function. I have deduced the equations for these parallels by considering several (x, y) pairs in the datasets at various levels. It should be noted that Millikan arrives at the absolute magnitude q of the electrical charge on a single electron (in his famous oil drop experiments) and then the numerical value of the Planck constant h from the photoelectric measurements, by using exactly the method just described. He considers various (x, y) pairs in his dataset to show the constancy of q. He does the same with the K-f measurements, where K = qVo with Vo being the stopping potential measured by Millikan (for two metals lithium and sodium). 

I have uploaded a pdf file with some figures discussing these findings on my Facebook page, see the group Global Warming for the Layman, https://www.facebook.com/groups/GWforlayman/