BAFFLED BY (STALLING OF) GLOBAL WARMING: NO NEED TO BE

UNIVERSALLAWGATLett1

BAFFLED BY (STALLING OF) GLOBAL WARMING

A recent media article, by Pilita Clark, that appeared in the Financial Times (February 9. 2014), see link given, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37930724-917a-11e3-adde-00144feab7de.html
is based on some recent findings of the IPCC, which attributes the “stalling” to strong Pacific trade winds.

Please note that my analysis of the global average temperature data, from 1880-2013 (which I have called attention to in earlier posts here and on my Facebook page, Global Warming for the Layman), leaves no room for this kind of “baffling” or “riddles” in climate science.

The global average temperature T, plotted versus time t in years, follows the simple law T = A + Bt. The data falls on a family of parallels with the same fixed slope B and varying values of the nonzero intercept A. I have shown that there are at least five parallels – not two but five  parallels – all having the same fixed slope B, which is a measure of the rate of increase of the global average temperature (warming rate, or heating rate). However, the nonzero intercept A is also important and determines the absolute magnitude of the global average temperature T. The more negative the nonzero intercept A, the lower will be the temperature, although the temperatures are still increasing.

Climate science, as I realized and have shared here, ignores the absolute magnitude of the global average temperature T and instead is focused on what is called the temperature anomalies, the difference between T and some baseline, now taken as the global average temperature for the 20th century by NASA GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies) and also by NCDC (National Climate Data Center). The focus on temperature anomaly (TA), instead of T, has been a barrier to the recognition of the fact that the earth is actually cooler than it would have been if the temperature had continued to rise along the parallels (dashed lines with positive slope) corresponding to earlier periods of the 20th century, see Figure 2 of the attached file.

A critical examination of the global average temperature data, while paying attention to the absolute values of the temperature T. Please note that the term “absolute” is NOT to be confused with absolute temperatures based on the Kelvin scale used in scientific work; it is simply the temperatures measured in degrees Celsius or Fahrenheit, without introducing the anomaly calculation. The temperature anomaly (TA) is given by the equation, 

TA = T – TB

where TB is the global average temperature for the base-period, which is now taken as the average value for the 20th century, i.e., the average over 1901-2000. More detailed discussion of the 21st century data can also be found in the references to this article being uploaded here. (The references are NOT published yet but can be obtained by contacting me.)

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EVIDENCE FOR A UNIVERSAL LAW DESCRIBING THE TEMPERATURE-TIME RELATION FOR THE EARTH’S CLIMATE STSTEM

Sunriseon28jan2014(Rev2)

EVIDENCE FOR A UNIVERSAL LAW DESCRIBING TEMPERATURE-TIME RELATION FOR THE EARTH’S CLIMATE SYSTEM

This is an updated and revised file that was posted earlier. (Sorry, I wish I could figure out how to delete old files and upload a revised file, making this post unnecessary.) 

When light, a stream of photons with energy E = hf, shines on the surface of a metal, it produces electrons with a maximum kinetic energy K, given by K = E – W = hf – W where h is the Planck constant, f is the frequency of light and W is the work function of the metal upon which light is shining. W represents the energy that must be given up to bring the electron out of the metal. This is the photoelectric law conceived by Einstein in 1905. 

Likewise, when the sun rises and shines upon the earth, the solar energy flux (also called the solar irradiance, energy per unit time per unit surface area, measured in Watts per square meter) causes the temperature T to start rising. According to the kinetic theory of gases, the temperature T of an ideal gas is directly proportional to the average kinetic energy of the atoms or molecules of the gas. Thus, the observed annual global average temperature can be taken as an accurate measure of the energy that has been transferred to the earth from the sun. 

I found something interesting about the temperature-time relationship over the last few weeks, by studying both the climate (and weather) data at various levels, at the local level of single city, at the national level of a  single country, and also at the global level. The law can be shown to be a simple linear law of the type T = A + Bt where the nonzero intercept A, in my opinion, is exactly similar to the work function conceived by Einstein to explain photoelectricity.

I have been testing the universal applicability of this law since it became obvious to me, recently, during the bitterly cold spell that we have been experiencing in the USA, which got me interested in studying the weather and/or climate data at various levels. The temperature-time data for both Detroit, MI and London, UK, for the full month of December 2013 and (the to-date) January 2014 can be shown to follow this simple law. The global average temperature data, from 1880-2013, can also be shown to obey the same law. As with the photoelectricity experiment, where the K-f graph yields a family of parallels (for different metals, each with its own work function W), the T-t graph is also a family of parallels, with a fixed slope B and a nonzero intercept A, which can be compared to Einstein’s work function. I have deduced the equations for these parallels by considering several (x, y) pairs in the datasets at various levels. It should be noted that Millikan arrives at the absolute magnitude q of the electrical charge on a single electron (in his famous oil drop experiments) and then the numerical value of the Planck constant h from the photoelectric measurements, by using exactly the method just described. He considers various (x, y) pairs in his dataset to show the constancy of q. He does the same with the K-f measurements, where K = qVo with Vo being the stopping potential measured by Millikan (for two metals lithium and sodium). 

I have uploaded a pdf file with some figures discussing these findings on my Facebook page, see the group Global Warming for the Layman, https://www.facebook.com/groups/GWforlayman/

A UNIVERSAL LAW FOR THE TEMPERATURE-TIME RELATION FOR THE EARTH’S CLIMATE SYSTEM

Sunriseon28jan2014Sunriseon28jan2014Sunriseon28jan2014Sunriseon28jan2014

In my first post here, I uploaded the photo of the sun rising this morning, at 7:55 am, on January 28, 2014 (taken with my iPad).

When light, a stream of photons with energy E = hf, shines on the surface of a metal, it produces electrons with a maximum kinetic energy K, given by K = E – W = hf – W where h is the Planck constant, f is the frequency of light and W is the work function of the metal upon which light is shining. W represents the energy that must be given up to bring the electron out of the metal. This is the photoelectric law conceived by Einstein in 1905. 

Likewise, when the sun rises and shines upon the earth, the solar energy flux (also called the solar irradiance, energy per unit time per unit surface area, measured in Watts per square meter) causes the temperature T to start rising. I found something interesting about the temperature-time relationship over the last few weeks, by studying both the climate (and weather) data at various levels, at the local level of single city, at the national level of a  single country, and also at the global level. The law can be shown to be a simple linear law of the type T = A + Bt where the nonzero intercept A, in my opinion, is exactly similar to the work function conceived by Einstein to explain photoelectricity.

I have been testing the universal applicability of this law since it became obvious to me, recently, during the bitterly cold spell that we have been experiencing in the USA, which got me interested in studying the weather and/or climate data at various levels. The temperature-time data for both Detroit, MI and London, UK, for the full month of December 2013 and (the to-date) January 2014 can be shown to follow this simple law. The global average temperature data, from 1880-2013, can also be shown to obey the same law. As with the photoelectricity experiment, where the K-f graph yields a family of parallels (for different metals, each with its own work function W), the T-t graph is also a family of parallels, with a fixed slope B and a nonzero intercept A, which can be compared to Einstein’s work function. I have deduced the equations for these parallels by considering several (x, y) pairs in the datasets at various levels. It should be noted that Millikan arrives at the absolute magnitude q of the electrical charge on a single electron (in his famous oil drop experiments) and then the numerical value of the Planck constant h from the photoelectric measurements, by using exactly the method just described. He considers various (x, y) pairs in his dataset to show the constancy of q. He does the same with the K-f measurements, where K = qVo with Vo being the stopping potential measured by Millikan (for two metals lithium and sodium). 

I have uploaded a pdf file with some figures discussing these findings on my Facebook page, see the group Global Warming for the Layman, https://www.facebook.com/groups/GWforlayman/