BAFFLED BY (STALLING OF) GLOBAL WARMING
A recent media article, by Pilita Clark, that appeared in the Financial Times (February 9. 2014), see link given, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/37930724-917a-11e3-adde-00144feab7de.html
is based on some recent findings of the IPCC, which attributes the “stalling” to strong Pacific trade winds.
Please note that my analysis of the global average temperature data, from 1880-2013 (which I have called attention to in earlier posts here and on my Facebook page, Global Warming for the Layman), leaves no room for this kind of “baffling” or “riddles” in climate science.
The global average temperature T, plotted versus time t in years, follows the simple law T = A + Bt. The data falls on a family of parallels with the same fixed slope B and varying values of the nonzero intercept A. I have shown that there are at least five parallels – not two but five parallels – all having the same fixed slope B, which is a measure of the rate of increase of the global average temperature (warming rate, or heating rate). However, the nonzero intercept A is also important and determines the absolute magnitude of the global average temperature T. The more negative the nonzero intercept A, the lower will be the temperature, although the temperatures are still increasing.
Climate science, as I realized and have shared here, ignores the absolute magnitude of the global average temperature T and instead is focused on what is called the temperature anomalies, the difference between T and some baseline, now taken as the global average temperature for the 20th century by NASA GISS (Goddard Institute of Space Studies) and also by NCDC (National Climate Data Center). The focus on temperature anomaly (TA), instead of T, has been a barrier to the recognition of the fact that the earth is actually cooler than it would have been if the temperature had continued to rise along the parallels (dashed lines with positive slope) corresponding to earlier periods of the 20th century, see Figure 2 of the attached file.
A critical examination of the global average temperature data, while paying attention to the absolute values of the temperature T. Please note that the term “absolute” is NOT to be confused with absolute temperatures based on the Kelvin scale used in scientific work; it is simply the temperatures measured in degrees Celsius or Fahrenheit, without introducing the anomaly calculation. The temperature anomaly (TA) is given by the equation,
TA = T – TB
where TB is the global average temperature for the base-period, which is now taken as the average value for the 20th century, i.e., the average over 1901-2000. More detailed discussion of the 21st century data can also be found in the references to this article being uploaded here. (The references are NOT published yet but can be obtained by contacting me.)